Act 02 · Slide 09 · Outcomes Aren't Moving

First-Time Buyers — 'Improvement?'

In 2010 and in 2025, Black Californians made up 4% of first-time buyers. Fifteen years of DEI programming, zero movement at the point of market entry.

4% → 4%
Black CA first-time buyers: 2010 to 2025
Share
California first-time buyers by race, 2010-2025 (% share)
Grouped by race; bars within each group are years 2010 → 2025 (lightest to darkest). Source: 2025 Housing Market Survey, California Association of REALTORS®.

The 2025 snapshot

4%
Black 2025 (same as 2010)
38%
White 2025 (down from 53%)
26%
Hispanic 2025
17%
Asian 2025

Line-by-line (%)

Race 2010 2015 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
White/Non-Hispanic5347403540373738
Black481099884
Hispanic/Latino1727353726353826
Asian1927292729283017

Reading the 'Improvement?' title

Black share unchanged across 15 years

This is the single most damning chart in the deck. 4% in 2010, 4% in 2025 — despite 15 years of agent training, DEI initiatives, and public-facing commitments.

White share declining 15 pts

Demographic replacement is happening at market entry — White share dropped from 53% to 38%. But it's not being backfilled by Black buyers; the replacement is happening in the Hispanic and Asian columns.

Hispanic and Asian volatility

Responsive to market, interest rates, immigration policy. Big year-over-year swings (Hispanic 38→26, Asian 30→17 between 2024 and 2025) show these groups absorb macro shocks at the point of entry.

The 'Improvement?' title is pointed

Oscar is asking whether this counts as improvement. The chart title's question mark is doing the rhetorical work — the data is not.

Alarm

Fifteen years of Fair Housing Day, ACT Plan, Fairhaven, bias training, DEI initiatives — Black first-time buyers in California are at the same 4% share they held in 2010. The title's question mark is doing all the work.

Black first-time buyers were 4% in 2010 and 4% in 2025. Fifteen years of DEI programming, zero movement at the entry point. The 5-year reflection should be called the 15-year indictment.

Source: 2025 Housing Market Survey, California Association of REALTORS®.