The two-decade demographic forecast
Line-by-line
Age group growth 2020-2040
| Age Group | Change |
|---|---|
| Under 20 | -5 to -10% |
| 20-54 (working age) | Flat / slight negative |
| 55-64 | +7% |
| 65-74 | +5-13% |
| 75-79 | +37% |
| 80-84 | +57% |
| 85+ | +115% |
Ethnic composition share (%)
| Group | 2020 | 2040 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hispanic | 39.8 | 38.8 | -1.0 |
| White (non-Hispanic) | 34.8 | 31.8 | -3.0 |
| Asian | 15.5 | 18.2 | +2.7 |
| Black | 6.0 | 5.5 | -0.5 |
| Other / Multiracial | 4.6 | 5.6 | +1.0 |
Fair housing implications
Aging = disability on-ramp
Most adults 85+ have at least one disability. Disability is already a protected class under FHA and FEHA — volume of reasonable accommodation requests (assistance animals, parking assignments, accessible paths) will surge through 2040.
Black share shrinking
6.0% → 5.5% isn't dramatic on its face — but combined with the widening CA Black-White homeownership gap (see Slide 06), it signals continued displacement pressures in the Bay Area.
Asian fastest-growing
+2.7 points by 2040 makes Asian the fastest-growing group. Primary language is a California-protected class — in-language service (Mandarin, Cantonese, Vietnamese, Tagalog, Hindi, Punjabi) becomes a compliance factor, not just a marketing edge.
Multiracial identification rising
"Other" climbing from 4.6% to 5.6% reflects younger generations identifying across multiple racial categories. Discrimination frameworks built around discrete categories may need to evolve.
California's AB 686 AFFH requirement means Housing Elements (8-year cycles, Bay Area on 2023-2031) must analyze disparate impact. An aging, diversifying population demands ADU, universal design, and aging-in-place provisions in city plans — LGR should track how Bay East service-area cities respond.
Source: California Department of Finance, Population Projection, Vintage September 2024. Presented by Oscar Wei, Deputy Chief Economist, C.A.R., at the 2026 Fair Housing Day (UC Berkeley, April 14, 2026).