Union City, CA Real Estate Market Update | May 2026 | Strong Seller's Market, MAI 50

Strong Seller's Market, but with a flatter line than 2024. Here's what Union City's single-family market is doing this week, what the 5-year picture looks like, and what it means whether you're buying, selling, or just walking through this weekend's open house in Foothill Glen.

What the data is saying

Prices have plateaued. The median list price is $1,398,000, the same as last week, and within a fraction of a percent of last month. The 90-day median has been hovering on this plateau for several weeks, ever since the line came off its early 2025 highs.

Per-square-foot is drifting downward. $764/sq ft today, with the trend pointing softly down. This isn't a weakness signal on its own. It's typical when larger homes come on the market in larger numbers, which is exactly what's happening in the Top quartile (median 2,345 sq ft).

Inventory has crept up to 45. That's high relative to the past five years (the band ranged roughly 5 to 60), but the Market Action Index sat at 50 last month and is at 50 today. Translation: buyers are showing up at roughly the same pace inventory is. It's still seller-favorable, but the market is no longer running ahead of itself.

Days on market are split. Median 28 days, average 41. Half the active listings have come on in the past 28 days or so, meaning the freshest listings are moving in line with buyer activity, while a tail of older listings is dragging the average up.

What this means if you're buying

You have a little more room than you would have had a year ago. Inventory is on the higher side of the recent five-year range, and 24% of currently active listings have already had at least one price decrease. You don't have to be the first one through the door anymore. That said, the MAI is still in seller-favorable territory at 50, so well-priced, well-presented homes (particularly in the Lower-to-Mid quartiles, $1.29M to $1.45M range, 4-bed, ~1,500 to 1,650 sq ft) are still moving in under 35 days.

If your search is at the Top quartile ($1.6M+), you have meaningful negotiating leverage right now. DOM in that tier sits around 28 days but the average pulls higher; the band is the only quartile where price-cut percentages run materially above the city average.

What this means if you're selling

It's still your market, but momentum has slowed enough that pricing-right matters more than it did six months ago. The headline you want to internalize: prices have not been moving higher for several weeks. Pricing 3 to 5% above last comparable closing is no longer a reliable strategy; it's how listings end up in the 24% that drop price.

Two things still favor sellers in May 2026:

The play if you're listing in May: price within $10K to $15K of the closest verified comp, prep the home tightly, and lean on the first 14-day window. The MAI is at the floor of "Strong Seller's Market." Fast attention while it's still labeled that way is worth more than a higher list price that gets cut a month in.

Foothill Glen and the Governo open house this weekend

Foothill Glen is one of the more competitive sub-markets within Union City. Braddock & Logan-built, walking distance to BART, and on the higher end of the city's $/sqft range.

I'm hosting 34187 Governo Drive this Saturday and Sunday (May 2 & 3, 2026, 1 to 4 PM). A 4-bed, 2.5-bath Arbor Rose, 2,138 sq ft, listed at $1,498,000 ($701/sq ft). It's one of the more transparent buys in the current Union City inventory: priced about 9% below RVM® of $1,657,320, park-facing with no front neighbors, and it's the only Foothill Glen home open for inspection this weekend.

If the market data above interests you and you want to see what mid-quartile Union City inventory actually looks like, walk through. No appointment needed; just come by during open house hours.

Disclosures & Data Sources

Data Source. All market metrics in this post are sourced from the Altos Research Local Market Report for Union City, CA, Single-Family Homes, dated May 2, 2026. © 2026 Altos Research, Inc. (altos.re). Today's values are exact and cited to the report. Historical 5-year ranges shown in the dashboard are visual approximations of the report's trend charts (Sept 2021 to April 2026); they are intended to communicate range and direction, not to substitute for the underlying time-series data.

Not a Guarantee. Real estate market data reflects past and current conditions and is not a guarantee of future results. Median values describe the broader market and may not represent any individual property. For a property-specific analysis, contact me directly.

Listing & Compliance. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Buyer to verify all data including but not limited to schools, square footage, lot size, and HOA. Equal Housing Opportunity.

Harv Balu, REALTOR® · GRI, CIPS, PSA, FTBS · DRE #02195792 · REALTY EXPERTS®, 41051 Mission Blvd, Fremont, CA 94539 · Cell 510-600-3425 · homes@HarvRealtor.com · HarvRealtor.com